By J. Harper, Strategic Affairs Correspondent
The Biden administration has reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to its treaty allies—the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Australia—while deepening security ties with Vietnam and Malaysia. The pact (Australia, U.K., U.S.) and intensified joint naval drills are signals that Washington will not cede strategic control of the sea lanes.
In the coming decade, the most likely outcome is neither a grand bargain nor a war, but a persistent, low-boil confrontation. The ships will continue to sail, the islands will continue to be fortified, and the diplomats will continue to talk. The only certainty is that the South China Sea will remain the world’s most dangerous and important stretch of water.
In a landmark 2016 ruling, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rejected China’s claims, stating that there was “no legal basis” for China to claim historic rights to resources within the nine-dash line. The court also ruled that certain features claimed by China, such as Mischief Reef, are rocks that do not generate a full EEZ. China has refused to recognize the ruling, insisting on bilateral negotiations rather than multilateral or international legal mechanisms. Since the early 2010s, China has transformed its presence in the region through a massive land-reclamation and construction program. Previously uninhabitable reefs and shoals have been converted into artificial islands with runways long enough for fighter jets, radar installations, anti-aircraft missile batteries, and deep-water harbors.
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South | China Sea
By J. Harper, Strategic Affairs Correspondent
The Biden administration has reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to its treaty allies—the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Australia—while deepening security ties with Vietnam and Malaysia. The pact (Australia, U.K., U.S.) and intensified joint naval drills are signals that Washington will not cede strategic control of the sea lanes. south china sea
In the coming decade, the most likely outcome is neither a grand bargain nor a war, but a persistent, low-boil confrontation. The ships will continue to sail, the islands will continue to be fortified, and the diplomats will continue to talk. The only certainty is that the South China Sea will remain the world’s most dangerous and important stretch of water. The pact (Australia, U
In a landmark 2016 ruling, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rejected China’s claims, stating that there was “no legal basis” for China to claim historic rights to resources within the nine-dash line. The court also ruled that certain features claimed by China, such as Mischief Reef, are rocks that do not generate a full EEZ. China has refused to recognize the ruling, insisting on bilateral negotiations rather than multilateral or international legal mechanisms. Since the early 2010s, China has transformed its presence in the region through a massive land-reclamation and construction program. Previously uninhabitable reefs and shoals have been converted into artificial islands with runways long enough for fighter jets, radar installations, anti-aircraft missile batteries, and deep-water harbors. The only certainty is that the South China
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