where ( \delta ) is a (e.g., 30 days).
[ \textMSEDC(e_i) = s_j \in S_i \mid t_ij < t_now + \delta ]
where ( w_ij ) is a weight reflecting the criticality of skill ( s_j ) for employee ( e_i ). | Layer | Components | |-------|-------------| | Data ingestion | HRIS, LMS, certification bodies (APIs), self-declared skills | | Storage | Skill graph DB (employee → skill → expiry → renewal rule) | | Checking engine | Daily batch + real-time on task assignment | | Alerting | Email, dashboard, Slack/Teams; escalation to manager if skill expired | | Forecasting | Predictive model of upcoming expiry waves by role/department | Key algorithm: Next Expiry Wave (NEW) Sort all ( t_ij ) per employee, compute gaps between consecutive expiries. Flag clusters where ≥3 skills expire within 7 days → risk of overload on employee. 4. Use Case Simulation Setting : Regional hospital, 200 nurses, each required 12 skills (BLS, ACLS, PALS, infection control, etc.) with expiries ranging 6–24 months.
[ R_\textteam = \sum_i=1^n \sum_j=1^ w_ij \cdot \mathbf1 t ij < t_now + \delta ]
: Excel + email reminders → 23% of nurses had at least one expired skill at random audit.
If ( t_ij < t_now ), the skill is . If between ( t_now ) and ( t_now + \delta ), it is critical . Otherwise valid . 2.3 Multi-dimensional expiry risk The aggregate skill expiry risk for a team/department is: