| Decade | Avg Goals/Match | Matches | |--------|----------------|---------| | 1930s | 4.2 | 18 | | 1950s | 3.8 | 89 | | 1990s | 2.7 | 208 | | 2010s | 2.6 | 320 | | 2020s | 2.5 | 64 | Host nations win or draw in 67.8% of matches (vs. 33.3% expected under neutrality). A two-proportion z-test yields z = 12.1, p < 0.001. Even excluding host matches, “home” teams (as designated in group stage) win 46% of matches, still above chance. 3.3 Disciplinary Trends Yellow cards per match increased from 0.2 (1970) to 4.1 (2022). Red cards remained rare (0.1–0.2 per match). Linear regression: yellow_cards_per_match = 0.073*year - 144.4 (R² = 0.76). Major jumps coincide with 1994 (points system for fair play) and 2018 (VAR). 4. Discussion Our findings align with football’s tactical evolution: tighter defenses and lower scoring (H1 supported). Home advantage persists even in neutral tournaments due to crowd support and familiarity (H2 supported). Disciplinary increases likely reflect stricter refereeing, not increased violence (H3 supported). Limitations include changing tournament sizes (more group matches) and rule modifications (e.g., offside law).
World Cup, Football Analytics, Sports Data Science, Jfjelstul Dataset, Home Advantage, Goal Trends 1. Introduction The FIFA World Cup is the most-watched sporting event globally. Despite rich narrative histories, quantitative longitudinal analysis has been limited by fragmented data. The Jfjelstul World Cup Database ( jfjelstul/worldcup ) provides a clean, structured CSV containing every match, goal, card, and penalty shootout since 1930. This paper demonstrates how to use this data to answer empirical questions about the evolution of the tournament. jfjelstul worldcup data-csv
Abstract This study leverages the jfjelstul_worldcup CSV dataset to explore long-term trends in men’s FIFA World Cup matches from 1930 to 2022. We examine three key research questions: (1) Has average goals per match declined over time? (2) Is home advantage statistically significant? (3) Has disciplinary action (yellow/red cards) increased with competitiveness? Using descriptive statistics, time-series visualizations, and hypothesis tests (t-tests and ANOVA), we find that goals per match have decreased moderately since the 1950s, home teams win or draw significantly more often than expected by chance, and card counts have risen substantially post-1990, likely reflecting rule changes and increased physical intensity. All analyses are fully reproducible from the public CSV data. | Decade | Avg Goals/Match | Matches |